Arxius de Research - Page 3 of 18

Risk assets continue to be snapped up in bulk. It seems to make no difference that governments in France are dropping like flies, that Israel is striking Qatar, that Poland is shooting down Russian drones, that US macro data are slowing, or that the Fed has become Washington’s punching bag. And the blows it is taking are no minor ones. In addition to attempts to oust one of its governors over alleged irregularities (dating back to before she took office), the administration has nominated Stephen Miran — the first ever to serve simultaneously at the Fed and within government. Even the summer months, which often bring episodes of volatility, have so far failed to deliver any meaningful correction. Investors are continuing to buy, without pause. Nothing troubles anyone. Still, the situation is far from catastrophic — there is no intention to dramatize events. Geopolitical conflicts rarely have a lasting impact on markets unless they spill over into the broader economy. In the United States, the labour market can slow without derailing consumption: reduced immigration has tightened the supply of workers, and wages for those in employment remain firm. And the Federal Reserve, battered though it may be, continues for now to withstand the political pressure. Meanwhile, the champagne keeps flowing for artificial intelligence providers. Oracle was the latest to join the party, announcing cloud service commitment figures that surprised everyone — both insiders and outsiders. Much of this appears to come from OpenAI (the company behind ChatGPT, for those less familiar), which does not have the funds it has pledged to spend. Nvidia came to the rescue a few days later — the very supplier providing Oracle with the chips. A triangulation that, at the very least, ought to raise an eyebrow. The Citigroup CEO once became famous for an interview in the Financial Times where he remarked that “as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance”. And that’s exactly what they did — they danced. The problem was that the interview took place in 2007, and the bank he ran nearly collapsed just a few months later. I must confess to the odd habit of admiring people who stand at opposite extremes — such as Charlie Munger, right hand man (and much more than that, but let us leave it there) to Warren Buffett, for those unfamiliar with the name. He used to say that real money is not made by buying or selling, but by waiting. Unfortunately, patience is not a virtue much praised these days — perhaps because we live in digital worlds, all of us accustomed to immediacy. The world is not doing as badly (nor as well) as it might seem, and we have no way of knowing whether AI is a bubble in the making — and if it is, it could take years to play out. What we do know is this: risk is poorly rewarded. Patience is the virtue of an investor. We need to know how to wait for better opportunities, which requires keeping part of the portfolio in reserve. We need to dig deep to find good ideas (and they are out there). But we also need to wait for underperforming ones to mature. And let the good ideas run their course, rather than rushing to take profits. In short, plenty of patience. It will pay off. Date of report: October 6th 2025

Research

The party goes on

A challenging landscape

The Fed’s triple mandate and recent rating changes in the euro area

Can this market go higher?

Gold glitters under the sun

Consolidating before the next leg down?

The United States to the rescue

Small caps join Mega-caps in leading the market

Inflation, wealth and ethical investing

Reinventing to Connect

Digital assets: banks reclaim their central role

Mega-caps again at the forefront