The return to school in September also marked gold’s return to the stage. The month began with gold reaching a new record high, while silver rose above the key $40 level. Following a period of consolidation during the summer, the precious metal now appears to be attracting renewed interest. Gold’s recent trajectory has been increasingly shaped by the resumption of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, concerns over the independence of that same institution, falling real interest rates and a US dollar hovering near the lower end of its recent range. This combination of factors has provided strong support for gold, reinforcing its strategic appeal.
Despite prices having remained rangebound in recent months, investor sentiment towards gold has not wavered. In today’s macroeconomic scenario, periods of consolidation and correction are seen as a natural part of the process rather than indications of structural shifts in outlook. Positioning remains relatively light, with many investors waiting for more attractive entry points.
Looking at the macro factors that have historically influenced the price of gold, the current moment also appears favourable: When central banks raise interest rates, assets such as bonds or deposits become more attractive, which can dampen demand for gold (as it generates no yield). The opposite occurs when rates are cut. Low rates generally work in gold’s favour. In addition, gold is priced in US dollars. When the dollar strengthens, gold usually becomes cheaper in other currencies and its price tends to drop—and vice versa. The dollar has weakened so far this year and all signs seem to indicate that it will continue to depreciate.
In addition, there were reports over the summer suggesting that gold bullion would be exempt from tariffs. While the market is still awaiting formal confirmation from the White House or the Customs and Border Protection Agency, this is another supportive factor.
Finally, any hint of missteps in monetary policy—or of the Federal Reserve’s independence being called into question—is likely to act as a bullish catalyst for gold, strengthening its role as a hedge against systemic risk. Its safe-haven status remains a key source of support. The break above key technical levels has likely triggered systematic flows, amplifying the move.
Our base case is that gold will continue setting new highs in the coming quarters. In our view, overall market positioning remains light. We expect the rally in gold to continue as its investor base broadens, supported both by the various factors outlined above and, of course, by central banks increasing their reserves in response to geopolitical risks.
Date of report: October 6th 2025