The market traded lower through most of last week. The selling was sparked by general profit-taking after a big run during the third quarter and some nervousness related to a worsening geopolitical environment after Iran fired missiles at Israel, which prompted a vow of retaliation. The market, however, did manage to end the week fractionally higher thanks to a rally driven by Friday’s release of the September Jobs Report and the end of the East Coast dockworkers’ strike.
The Jobs report showed stronger than expected hiring, a drop in unemployment, and a rise in average hourly earnings. This was consistent with the market’s soft landing narrative, which led to a recalibration in rate cut expectations due to the notion that the Fed won’t have to act as aggressive going forward compared to the September meeting. The probability of a 50 basis points rate cut at the November FOMC meeting dropped to virtually 0% on Friday, down from 32% Thursday and 53% a week ago.
The geopolitical angst in the Middle East manifested in rising oil prices. WTI crude oil settled at $68.15 per barrel a week ago and jumped to $74.40 per barrel this last Friday. The movement in crude oil boosted the energy sector, which jumped 7.0% last week.
The semiconductor group experienced a bounce on the last two days of the week. The move was sparked by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang telling CNBC in an interview after Wednesday’s close that demand for Blackwell is “insane.”