Is this a new bull market? - Creand
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Is this a new bull market?

The S&P 500 closed Thursday’s session (4,293.93) more than 20% above its October closing low, which enables it to meet the technical definition of being in a new bull market. On Friday, the S&P 500 climbed past 4,300 for the first time since August of last year, but it couldn’t hold that level, eventually ending the week just below 4,300.   This was the fourth and seventh straight week of gains for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, respectively.

Although the market continued to move higher, there was rotation as to what stocks were participating.  Money rotated out of mega caps (which had been the main drivers of the market so far this year) and into other areas of the market. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) rose 1.0% this week while the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) closed down 0.2%. The Russell 2000 outperformed after lagging the S&P so far this year. It was the top performing major index with a 1.9% gain.  That outperformance was helped out by strong regional bank shares. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) rose 3.0% this week. That move was partially fueled by Goldman Sachs lowering its probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 25% from 35%, citing receding banking risks.

Perhaps the mega caps were hit with profit taking after such a big run this year.  A notable exception in that regard was Tesla (TSLA), which jumped 14.2% this week and logged its eleventh straight gain on Friday. Some of that strength followed the announcement of a charging network deal with General Motors (GM).  On the other hand, Apple (AAPL) closed flat this past week after introducing its Vision Pro mixed reality headset at its Worldwide Developers Conference on Monday.

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Charles Castillo
Senior Portfolio Manager. Creand Wealth Management (Miami, USA)