{"id":25246,"date":"2026-09-17T09:55:46","date_gmt":"2026-09-17T07:55:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/creandgroup.com\/?post_type=opinion-article&#038;p=25246"},"modified":"2026-09-17T10:37:56","modified_gmt":"2026-09-17T08:37:56","slug":"hawkish-fed","status":"publish","type":"opinion-article","link":"https:\/\/creandgroup.com\/es\/articulo-opinion\/hawkish-fed\/","title":{"rendered":"Hawkish Fed"},"content":{"rendered":"<section id=\"block_415f97f771cf3c86b98c1bbe72c2d382\"  data-block_415f97f771cf3c86b98c1bbe72c2d382 class=\"text-img-article align w-full section-text-img-article relative block clear-both overflow-hidden mt-8 lg:mt-16\">\n    <div class=\"container\">\n\n        \n                    <div class=\"article-rows max-w-detail_container mx-auto mt-8 lg:mt-12\">\n                                     \n                                            <div class=\"article-row text-row my-6 lg:my-8  \" data-aos=\"fade-in\" data-aos-duration=\"500\" data-aos-easing=\"ease-in-out\" data-aos-once=\"true\">\n                            <div class=\"article-row-col w-full \"><p>Primera subida de tipos de la Fed desde 2023, que se daba por descontada. Lo m\u00e1s relevante: 1) fue por unanimidad &#8211; y al parecer, Warsh incluso se arremang\u00f3 para convencer a los reticentes para votar en este sentido. Este punto refuerza la credibilidad de la Reserva Federal, y, sobre todo, de su presidente. Las sospechas de que ser\u00eda un t\u00edtere de Trump se van desvaneciendo. 2) La rueda de prensa posterior era mucho m\u00e1s importante que la decisi\u00f3n, y Warsh fue vehemente en que devolver la inflaci\u00f3n al 2% no es negociable. 3) Es el inicio de un ciclo, no una subida aislada: el <span class=\"quote-mark\">\u00ab<\/span>dot-plot<span class=\"quote-mark\">\u00bb<\/span> indica que la mayor\u00eda de los miembros del FOMC calculan que volver\u00e1n a subir tipos una vez m\u00e1s este a\u00f1o, y una o dos m\u00e1s en 2027.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Tal vez, ojal\u00e1, exageren. Buena parte de la subida de precios se alimenta de las subidas del crudo, y de la situaci\u00f3n en Ir\u00e1n. Sin visos de mejorar -m\u00e1s bien todo lo contrario- no parece sostenible en el largo plazo. Bien se encuentra la manera de que el crudo vuelva a exportarse desde Medio Oriente al resto del mundo a niveles aceptables, y entonces el precio del crudo cae, bien la cosa empeora, el crudo sube, pero deteriora el crecimiento global, lo que reducir\u00eda la inflaci\u00f3n por deterioro de la demanda. Recuerden, en cualquier caso, que la inflaci\u00f3n es la<em> variaci\u00f3n<\/em> de precios de un a\u00f1o a otro &#8211; para repetir el brusco ascenso de este a\u00f1o, el crudo deber\u00eda ir a niveles que no parecen compatibles con una macro decente.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                    \n                            <\/div>\n        \n    <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n<style>\n    .section-text-img-article .article-media :is(img, video) {\n        width: 100%; height: auto; max-height: 519px;\n        object-fit: contain; display: block; margin: 0 auto;\n    }\n    .section-text-img-article .article-media :is(.wp-video, .wp-video-shortcode) {\n        width: 100% !important; height: auto !important; max-width: 100%; max-height: 519px;\n    }\n    .section-text-img-article .video-embed-responsive {\n        position: relative; width: 100%; max-height: 519px;\n        padding-bottom: 56.25%; height: 0; overflow: hidden;\n    }\n    .section-text-img-article .video-embed-responsive :is(iframe, embed, object) {\n        position: absolute; 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