{"id":24525,"date":"2026-07-08T12:47:47","date_gmt":"2026-07-08T10:47:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/creandgroup.com\/quarterly-report\/la-renda-fixa-torna-a-oferir-oportunitats-atractives-en-un-entorn-incert\/"},"modified":"2026-07-10T09:36:53","modified_gmt":"2026-07-10T07:36:53","slug":"fixed-income-once-again-offers-attractive-opportunities-in-an-uncertain-environment","status":"publish","type":"quarterly-report","link":"https:\/\/creandgroup.com\/en\/quarterly-report\/fixed-income-once-again-offers-attractive-opportunities-in-an-uncertain-environment\/","title":{"rendered":"Fixed income once again offers attractive opportunities in an uncertain environment"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Fixed income\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/O1OYUkk9Rro?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"134\" height=\"130\" src=\"https:\/\/creandgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/pixel.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13254\" style=\"width:21px;height:auto\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">During the first half of the year, bond yields have risen globally, reaching attractive levels in both Europe and the United States (see chart showing the performance of EUR- and USD-denominated corporate bond indices).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"566\" height=\"298\" src=\"https:\/\/creandgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/image.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-24508\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"134\" height=\"130\" src=\"https:\/\/creandgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/pixel.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13253\" style=\"width:21px;height:auto\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The ECB\u2019s recent decision to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% has created some pressure on risk assets. However, today\u2019s environment differs markedly from the aggressive monetary tightening cycle of 2022\u20132023, when interest rates rose from -0.5% to 4.0% in just fifteen months. At present, markets are not pricing in a renewed prolonged tightening cycle. Instead, the prevailing expectation is for a one-off, precautionary rate increase, likely to be followed by a relatively swift normalisation (which could be visualised as an inverted V).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Two key drivers of interest rate developments:<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>The recent rise in real rates (returns after adjusting for inflation) has been driven primarily by higher inflation expectations resulting from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and risks to global supply chains, particularly following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.<\/strong> <strong>As long as short-term real interest rates remain high, two-year government bond yields are unlikely to decline significantly. <\/strong>This suggests that borrowing costs could remain elevated for longer, against a backdrop of rising public debt and substantial financing requirements linked to AI development and investment in data centres, which are expected to drive a higher volume of bond issuance during the second half of the year. <strong>(See chart showing US two-year real interest rates.) <\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"566\" height=\"341\" src=\"https:\/\/creandgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/image-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-24512\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"134\" height=\"130\" src=\"https:\/\/creandgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/pixel.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13253\" style=\"width:21px;height:auto\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>The yield curve continues to flatten.<\/strong> The term structure of interest rates continues to exhibit a bear flattening pattern, with short-dated yields rising while longer maturities remain relatively stable. However, any easing of geopolitical tensions and a moderation in oil prices could pave the way for a sustained decline in short-term interest rates<strong>. <\/strong>(See chart comparing the euro benchmark yield curve at 31\/12\/2025 and at the end of June 2026).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"567\" height=\"291\" src=\"https:\/\/creandgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/image-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-24516\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"134\" height=\"130\" src=\"https:\/\/creandgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/pixel.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13253\" style=\"width:21px;height:auto\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Corporate credit: relative value and opportunity<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although credit spreads remain close to their narrowest levels in decades, which could suggest demanding valuations, the overall yield available from corporate credit remains attractive thanks to the absolute level of interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Since the end of February, coinciding with the onset of tensions involving Iran, the yield of the Bloomberg EUR Corporate Investment Grade Index has risen from 3.0% to 3.55%, making the asset class significantly more attractive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The chart below shows the evolution of the iTraxx IG and HY spreads.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"566\" height=\"314\" src=\"https:\/\/creandgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/image-3.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-24520\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"134\" height=\"130\" src=\"https:\/\/creandgroup.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/pixel.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-13253\" style=\"width:21px;height:auto\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In addition, we continue to observe a gradual rotation of portfolios from sovereign debt into corporate credit, driven by three key factors:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The deterioration in the fiscal position of governments facing substantial financing needs.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Strong corporate fundamentals, with companies continuing to demonstrate a high degree of resilience on an aggregate basis.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Default rates that remain at historically low levels.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This trend is also being reinforced by the major credit rating agencies. Fitch has recently revised its 2026 outlook for global sovereign issuers from \u201cneutral\u201d to \u201cdeteriorating\u201d, while Moody\u2019s has recognised that corporate bond markets now have a much better rating than the government bonds issued by their respective sovereigns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Our view<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Against a backdrop of continued macroeconomic uncertainty and growing signs of strain in public finances, we continue to believe that selected segments of the corporate credit market offer a particularly attractive balance between yield and credit risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fixed income has once again become a core building block in portfolio construction, serving not only as a defensive allocation but also as an increasingly attractive source of returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><sub>Date of report: July 8th of 2026<\/sub><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":24596,"template":"","categories":[479,666],"class_list":["post-24525","quarterly-report","type-quarterly-report","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research-en","category-financial-analysis"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/creandgroup.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/quarterly-report\/24525","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/creandgroup.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/quarterly-report"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/creandgroup.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/quarterly-report"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/creandgroup.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/29"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/creandgroup.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24596"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/creandgroup.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24525"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/creandgroup.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24525"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}